Adjacent Airspace Risk and Containment Requirement Estimation for Uncrewed Operations

This paper considers the problem of quantifying air risk for adjacent airspace and estimating containment requirements for volumetrically constrained uncrewed operations. First, a quantitative air risk estimation framework linking operational and adjacent airspace collision risk subject to containment probability is presented. Second, continuous and discrete approaches to calculate adjacent airspace collision risk components within the framework are derived then used to estimate containment probability requirements given target safety levels. Third, case studies using advanced air risk estimation approaches, diverse air traffic environments, and hypothetical uncrewed operations are analysed. The results can help justify suitable quantitative containment requirements related to adjacent airspace risk. The work therefore provides mathematical rigour and real examples to support ongoing development of uncrewed system requirements and established operational risk assessment approaches.