Ground Risk Buffer Estimation for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Test Flights Based on Dynamics Analysis

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are regarded as a novel mode for urban air mobility, earning increasing attention on many commercial and civil applications. The risk of UAVs to people on the ground is heightened by airspace range and operational risks, and the quantitative ground risk buffer estimation are highly required to protect the people on the ground. In this work, a ground risk buffer estimation method based on the analysis of the UAVs dynamics is proposed. It is a 3D contour map, incorporated with flight test parameters, to determine the ground risk buffer for both, rotorcraft UAVs and fixed-wing UAVs. The contour map is generated through UAVs dynamics analysis and combines several parameter layers, including altitude and speed at moment of failure occurence, environment conditions and the lift-to-drag ratio. Each location of the map has associated a value that quantifies the area of the ground risk buffer for a specific test flight condition. The ground risk buffer determined by the current Specific Operations Risk Assessment framework using the 1-to-1 principle is provided for comparison. The proposed method exhibits greater safety margin and further proves the potential of the new estimation method in the perspective of risk quantification and practical engineering applications.