Present and future suitability of invasive and urban vectors through an environmentally-driven Mosquito Reproduction Number

1 Abstract Temperature and water availability significantly influence mosquito population dynamics. We’ve devised a method, integrating experimental data with insights from mosquito and thermal biology, to calculate the basic reproduction number ( R M ) for urban mosquito species, Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti . R M represents the number of female mosquitoes produced by one female during her lifespan, indicating suitability for growth. Environmental conditions, including temperature, rainfall and human density influence R M by altering key mosquito life cycle traits. Validation using data from Spain and Europe confirms the approach’s reliability. Our analysis suggests that temperature increases may not uniformly benefit Ae. albopictus proliferation but could boost Ae. aegypti expansion. We suggest using vector R M maps, leveraging climate and environmental data, to predict areas susceptible to invasive mosquito population growth. These maps aid in resource allocation for intervention strategies, supporting effective vector surveillance and management efforts.