Crime Dynamics in Russia - Model Analysis

Introduction. The article proposes a mathematical model of the dynamics of one of the indicators of crime ― the number of persons who have committed crimes. The indicator is aggregated, so it is considered as a generalized characteristic of the behavior of crime in general. The analysis of the dynamics of the indicator in the context of the political, economic and legal situation in the country and the world is carried out. Materials and methods. As a statistical base for the crime indicator, data from the statistical yearbook "Russia in figures" has been used. For global oil demand, data from the monthly review of the International Energy Agency (Monthly Oil Market Report // International Energy Agency) has been used. To build mathematical models, time series analysis and modeling methods were used, and correlation analysis methods were used when comparing models. General scientific research methods were also used - systematic and historical approaches. Results of the study. A mathematical model is proposed, which is the sum of periodic functions and a trend. The functions have several settings and only one argument – time. The model adequately describes the behavior of the indicator therefore it can be used to obtain short-term forecasts. The historical period is highlighted, in which the correlation between the dynamics of crime and the dynamics of the global economic situation is traced. The stabilization of crime dynamics in recent years has been noted, when the processes of restoring Russia's economic sovereignty accelerated. Discussion and conclusion. The proposed mathematical model gives good results of fitting the crime indicator to a time series on the entire observation period. And this period covers very different historical situations: from unlimited entry into the global economic system to strengthening economic sovereignty. The reliability of the model over the entire interval indicates the validity of its use even with new economic benchmarks. The result of demonstrating a rapid decrease in the amplitude of fluctuations in the crime rate while strengthening the sovereignty of the Russian economy in recent years is indicative. The processes that were analyzed in the work have many differences, but they are well described by models of the same type. A possible explanation for this invariance is the hypothesis that some complex socio-economic processes not only affect each other's condition, but synchronize their dynamics.