Purpose - This study presented a method to analyze the impact of nationwide socioeconomic events, like COVID-19, on demand changes in individual tourist areas.Design, data, and methodology - Empirical analysis was carried out using the tourist statistics from the Korea Tourism Knowledge & Information System. The study presented an analytical methodology utilizing a hypothetical comparison group, time series forecasting, and performance evaluation methods in machine learning.Result - The empirical analysis of 117 tourist areas in Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi-do, and Gangwon-do showed that, at a statistically significant level, 39% of the tourist areas experienced a decrease in demand, while 57% showed no change in demand.Conclusions - This study introduced a method to estimate and test the individual impact of events without comparison group data, and validated its effectiveness by analyzing demand changes at tourist areas during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Yang et al. (2024) studied this question.
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