The Impact of GRDP, Unemployment Rate, and Private Academies Ratio on Total Fertility Rate: A Focus on Regional Panel Data

This study aimed to analyze whether the determinants of fertility rates vary by region.The selected determinants of fertility rates were regional gross domestic product (GRDP), unemployment rate, and the number of private academies per population (private academy ratio), which represents parental expenditure.Additionally, regions were divided into "population-density areas" and "population-sparse areas."The data used for analysis was panel data composed of 16 provinces nationwide from 2003 to 2022.The following results were obtained through panel analysis in this study.Firstly, in the analysis results targeting the entire country, all three indicators had statistically significant negative (-) effects on the total fertility rate.Secondly, the results of the analysis targeting populationdensity areas maintained the same results as those targeting the entire country.Thirdly, in the analysis results targeting population-sparse areas, GRDP, and the unemployment rate had statistically significant negative (-) effects on the total fertility rate.In contrast, the private academy ratio had a statistically significant positive (+) effect.The results of this study have the following economic implications.Firstly, nationwide economic growth can lower the total fertility rate.In contrast, economic stability can increase it.Secondly, policies that reduce private education expenses may be needed in population-density areas to increase fertility rates.In contrast, policies that improve educational levels may be required in population-sparse areas.