A Preliminary Study on the Impact of Lower-Division Mathematics Courses on Student Success in Engineering

Students' success in engineering programs - in terms of retention and graduation rates - is significantly influenced by various cognitive and non-cognitive factors, as revealed in the literature. While earlier studies provided comprehensive analyses of many of those factors, we see that the impact of success in individual courses is often overlooked. Yet among the courses offered, lower-division mathematics classes play a critical role in student retention and graduation rates. Also, considering that not all students take the same set of courses in their first year due to transfers from other institutions, change of majors, and necessary preparatory programs, such an analysis based on individual courses becomes an important indicator. This study aims to address this oversight by examining the impact of early mathematics performance on students' long-term academic success in engineering disciplines. Our research employs regressions and advanced machine learning techniques to analyze the relationship between students' achievements in initial mathematics courses and their retention and subsequent success in higher-division engineering courses. The analysis demonstrates a strong correlation, as our predictive models forecast student success in upper-level courses with approx. 70% accuracy. This finding underscores the importance of early math education in shaping the future academic trajectory of students, especially in mechanical engineering and electrical and computer engineering. Moreover, the study offers significant insights for educational institutions. The results can inform strategic curriculum development, the design of more effective student support systems, and better resource allocation to address the specific needs of students in these fields. Beyond the academic literature on student success in engineering, this research also provides a practical framework for educational institutions to make informed decisions in curriculum design and planning in the evolving field of engineering education.