Exit of Russian troops signals shift away from Armenia

Significance The visit followed Moscow’s decision to pull out its last remaining troops from Nagorno-Karabakh before the expiration of their peacekeeping mandate. This reflects the Kremlin’s shifting policy towards the South Caucasus, caused by the war in Ukraine, tensions with the West and the shifting balance of power in the region. Impacts Progress on a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan will boost the prospects for a rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey. Iran will continue supporting Yerevan, as evidenced by Tehran’s decision to allow Armenia to open a consulate in the Islamic Republic. Any significant concessions made by Armenia to Azerbaijan will result in increased domestic instability.