The effect of fire-induced forest-degradation on rainfall: a causal inference analysis of the case of the Brazilian Amazon

Forest degradation by fires is growing in a fast pace in the Brazilian portion of the Amazonian rainforest, damaging the regional environment and economy. Seeking to measure the impact of such process on rainfall, the paper analyses a wide diversity of fine-grained satellite measurements with causal inference techniques. Results show that agricultural fires increase forest fires in 40% of the usual rise in forest fires due to seasonal warming. Rainfall is reduced in 25% of the rainfall decay normally caused by seasonal drying. Impacts on agricultural production were detected, but the evidence was not strong. These findings considerably expand the hitherto available evidence, which is not only scarce and biased by confounders, but essentially uni-disciplinary and thus partial in terms of the acknowledged consequences.