Migration, economic drivers, and sustainability transitions: evidence from host and source countries before and after COVID-19

This study examines whether the COVID-19 pandemic altered the relationship between economic, social, and environmental drivers and the likelihood of positive per capita net migration (PNM) across the top 25 host and 25 source countries from 2000 to 2023. Using random-effects panel probit regression, the analysis evaluates the roles of economic growth, unemployment, educational attainment, climate change, and COVID-19 cases, across the pre-COVID-19 and immediate post-pandemic periods. The findings indicate that the estimated associations differ between host and source migration systems. In host countries, economic growth, educational attainment, and COVID-19-related conditions are significantly associated with a higher likelihood of positive PNM during the immediate post-pandemic period, reflecting changing labour-market demands and recovery dynamics. In contrast, none of the examined variables is statistically significant in the source-country post-COVID-19 model, although this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the short estimation period and limited model performance. From a sustainability perspective, the findings show how global shocks may reshape migration systems, labour allocation, and resilience pathways across different development contexts. The study extends the migration push-pull framework by integrating economic, human-capital, and environmental determinants within a common empirical design and demonstrating that their associations with migration status may differ between host and source countries. The results provide policy-relevant evidence for designing adaptive migration strategies that strengthen economic resilience, support human-capital mobility, and address emerging climate-related migration pressures while contributing to Sustainable Development Goals related to decent work, reduced inequalities, and climate action.