A markov chain based photovoltaic power simulation method

Photovoltaic power generation has volatility and randomness, which affects the safety and reliability of the power system. In order to achieve accurate simulation of photovoltaic output, this paper proposes a photovoltaic power timing simulation method based on rolling sampled Markov chain model. Firstly, establish a photovoltaic output model and analyze the actual output characteristics; Then, based on the first-order Markov chain model, the relationship between adjacent days is considered, and a multistate transition probability matrix is established to construct an annual time series output model; Finally, based on the annual output data of a photovoltaic power station and historical meteorological monitoring data, an example is simulated to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.