Not a Bioweapon, or is it? How Threat Perceptions and Media Use Influenced COVID-19 Misperceptions

Cautioning against the perilous spread of misinformation, the World Health Organization has acknowledged the pervasive issue of information overload right from the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Resulting misperceptions not only fostered a climate of distrust in authorities but also impeded the effectiveness of public health responses. Against this background, this study examines the effects of threat perceptions and media use on the dynamics of (mis)perceptions regarding the origins of the virus. Using six waves from an online panel survey, fielded over a two-year period between April 2020 and March 2022, we found a substantial number of transitions in and out of misinformedness at the individual level. We modeled those transitions through a Mixed Markov Chain Model and identified two distinct clusters in the population – one exhibiting greater stability and the other displaying higher volatility. Our findings suggest that threat perceptions had only weak and conditional effects. Media effects, in turn, were more consistent, with public broadcasting and broadsheets immunizing the population against transitions into misinformedness, while commercial news media, tabloids and social media often increased the likelihood of becoming misinformed. Our findings underscore that media quality matters to foster societal resilience against misinformation.