Optimization Research on Category Sales Strategy Based on Cost Profit Margin and Time Series Forecasting Models

Fresh food supermarkets often need to make multi-factor considerations when managing and selling vegetables, due to deterioration and out-of-stock problems of vegetables, stores also need to develop daily replenishment and pricing plans based on historical sales data and demand for each vegetable. In order to develop a reasonable replenishment and pricing strategy program, this paper first explores the relationship between total sales and cost-plus pricing on the basis of vegetable categories, considering the cost profit margin under the effect of the attrition rate, and portraying cost-plus pricing through this variable. Then, by selecting the time period that is relatively smooth and regular in data distribution, the sales volume and cost profit margin are fitted by MATLAB to obtain the functional relationship, and the inverse relationship and direct relationship are all found to be the utility curves, which are “small profit but sell more” and “more profit and sell more”. These are all product characteristics. Based on the respective functional relationships between sales volume and cost profit margin, this paper applies the time series model to predict the value of the attrition rate and wholesale price in the coming week as well as statistics and gives the daily replenishment strategy and the pricing strategy of the six categories in the coming week.