Assessing the Reliability of Small Hydropower Plant Generation Systems Using Markov Processes

This paper aims to improve methods for assessing the reliability of small hydropower generation systems. The authors believe it is important to consider the impact of equipment failures on the power plant's operating capacity when developing a reliability analysis method. Additionally, the hydrological conditions of the river affect the reliability of power delivery, which also requires evaluation. To estimate the generated power value, the authors suggest using the state space and Markov process method to describe the transition probabilities between states. For calculating the transition probabilities of a small hydroelectric power plant generation system, we propose representing the Markov process as a fast-descending sign-negative vector series of differential equations. This approach increases calculation accuracy and reduces volume.