Long-term cardiovascular disease outcomes in non-hospitalized medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with COVID-19: Population-based matched cohort study

Background SARS-CoV2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), can affect multiple human organs structurally and functionally, including the cardiovascular system and brain. Many studies focused on the acute effects of COVID-19 on risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and stroke especially among hospitalized patients with limited follow-up time. This study examined long-term mortality, hospitalization, CVD and stroke outcomes after non-hospitalized COVID-19 among Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries in the United States. Methods This retrospective matched cohort study included 944,371 FFS beneficiaries aged ≥66 years diagnosed with non-hospitalized COVID-19 from April 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, and followed-up to May 31, 2022, and 944,371 propensity score matched FFS beneficiaries without COVID-19. Primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, hospitalization, and incidence of 15 CVD and stroke. Because most outcomes violated the proportional hazards assumption, we used restricted cubic splines to model non-proportional hazards in Cox models and presented time-varying hazard ratios (HRs) and Bonferroni corrected 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results The mean age was 75.3 years; 58.0% women and 82.6% non-Hispanic White. The median follow-up was 18.5 months (interquartile range 16.5 to 20.5). COVID-19 showed initial stronger effects on all-cause mortality, hospitalization and 12 incident CVD outcomes with adjusted HRs in 0–3 months ranging from 1.05 (95% CI 1.01–1.09) for mortality to 2.55 (2.26–2.87) for pulmonary embolism. The effects of COVID-19 on outcomes reduced significantly after 3-month follow-up. Risk of mortality, acute myocardial infarction, cardiomyopathy, deep vein thrombosis, and pulmonary embolism returned to baseline after 6-month follow-up. Patterns of initial stronger effects of COVID-19 were largely consistent across age groups, sex, and race/ethnicity. Conclusions Our results showed a consistent time-varying effects of COVID-19 on mortality, hospitalization, and incident CVD among non-hospitalized COVID-19 survivors.