Developing fuzzy-based earned value analysis model for estimating the performance of construction projects. A case of selected public building projects in Ethiopia

Earned value analysis is an important tool to measure the performance of a project to indicate what will happen to the work in the future. This study focuses on developing a fuzzy-based earned value analysis model for estimating the performance of projects. The model provides to make estimations getting closer and reduces the errors in calculations through the fuzzy linguistic terms. The data for this study were taken from projects which were done between 2020 and 2023 for the six sets of building projects. The data has been analyzed through a fuzzy-based earned value analysis model by using Microsoft Excel as a basic tool. It was found that the fuzzy-based SPI value for all projects was in Scenario 1, which implies that T((SPI˜)≥1) = 0 and T((SPI˜) ≤ 1) = 1, So the work package is behind the schedule. Similarly, the value of fuzzy-based CPI for all projects except one were in Scenario 1, implies that T((CPI˜) ≥1) = 0 and T((CPI˜) ≤ 1) = 1, so the work package is behind the budget. Finally, it can be recommended that it needs to properly monitor, and control the project time, and cost to recover deviation in the remaining periods.