Spatial predictors of landowners’ engagement in the restoration of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Forest restoration has the potential to contribute to climate, biodiversity, and human well-being, responding to multiple global sustainable development goals. Yet, little is known about the factors associated with local actors’ choice to engage in forest restoration, limiting the development of effective scaling strategies. 2. Our study examines the spatial socio-ecological factors associated with landowners’ engagement in forest restoration, documented by the Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact in Brazil. To meet this aim, we draw on Diffusion of Innovations theory to model associations between forest restoration and explanatory variables related to the relative advantage of engagement, characteristics of landowners, and contextual conditions among 222,000 private properties in the Atlantic Forest. 3. Private properties with greater cattle densities, larger geographical sizes, lower levels of 2010 forest cover, smaller 1990-2010 forest loss, and waterbodies were more likely to be restored. Furthermore, properties in upland areas, with greater topographical ruggedness, at higher travel times from major cities, and in areas with a higher prevalence of local on-farm forest management practices and lower population densities were less likely to be restored. 4. Landowners’ decision-making appears responsive to legislative requirements, underscoring their value as levers for promoting restoration. Commercial landowners might have greater incentives to engage in restoration or be selectively targeted by restoration organisations, risking the marginalisation of smallholders from the Atlantic Forest restoration agenda. Finally, engagement with forest restoration is highest where there are more people and lower travel times to cities, suggesting restoration can potentially deliver ecological benefits in some of Brazil’s most heavily degraded landscapes. Building on these insights, we discuss strategies to accelerate the scaling of forest regeneration to meet national and internationally important nature, climate, and human well-being goals.