The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Real Effective Exchange Rate and Systemic Risks --Based on TVP-VAR Modeling

Today's international situation is complex and volatile, and the impact of economic policy uncertainty on systemic financial risk has attracted much attention. In this essay, the TVP-VAR model is used to investigate the mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on systemic financial risk and real effective exchange rate. It is found that its effect on both was characterized by time-varying and nonlinear, and the impact on systemic financial risk is mainly long-term, while the impact of real effective exchange rate is mainly short- and medium-term as long as. Meanwhile, the impact of economic policy uncertainty on systemic financial risk and real effective exchange rate under some specific risk events is more lasting.