The Critical Role of Energy Intensity in Decarbonizing ASEAN: Integrating Growth and Emissions Reductions

This research analyzes drivers of CO2 emissions across ASEAN countries from 1971-2017 to inform effective policies for sustainable decarbonized development. The goal is to identify critical factors influencing emissions growth and reductions to guide strategic climate mitigation planning. Data includes 3128 emissions, GDP, population, and energy consumption observations from 9 ASEAN nations. Results using the Kaya Index and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition reveal GDP growth and population as primary drivers of increasing emissions, while energy efficiency dampens growth. Indonesia saw the highest emissions growth, driven by population and economic expansion. Thailand's phenomenal GDP growth of 3003.7% led to its emission increases. Singapore and the Philippines achieved notable reductions. Findings suggest integrated policies like clean energy, efficiency gains, infrastructure planning, and low-carbon economic reform are needed. Transitioning towards affordable clean energy systems with proactive leadership can enable ASEAN to sustain growth while mitigating climate risks. Further research should identify optimal policy mixes to maximize socio-economic progress and welfare while meeting urgent emission targets tailored to each nation. This study provides vital insights into key factors influencing ASEAN emissions and highlights pathways towards sustainable decarbonized development. The analysis of historical trends aims to inform strategic policymaking for decarbonization.