Transition Finance and Carbon Emission Dynamics within the Environmental Kuznets Curve Framework in ASEAN Countries

ASEAN’s rapid economic growth continues to be accompanied by increasing environmental pressure due to its dependence on carbon-based energy. This condition indicates that decarbonization cannot rely solely on income growth, but requires support from energy transformation, technological innovation, and transition finance. This study aims to analyze the effects of economic growth, fossil energy consumption, renewable energy, technological innovation, financial development, and the interaction between financial development and fossil energy on CO₂ emissions within the Environmental Kuznets Curve framework. This research employs an explanatory quantitative approach using secondary annual panel data. The population consists of all ASEAN member states, and a saturated sampling technique is applied, in which the entire population is used as the sample, covering ten ASEAN countries. The research locations include Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam during the 1991–2020 period, with a total of 300 country-year observations. The analytical method used is Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag with the Pooled Mean Group estimator to examine short-run and long-run relationships. The results show that economic growth, fossil energy consumption, technological innovation, and financial development continue to increase CO₂ emissions, while renewable energy has not yet served as an effective substitute for fossil energy. However, the interaction between financial development and fossil energy indicates the potential role of transition finance in weakening emission impacts. The implications of this study emphasize the importance of reorienting finance toward transition financing, accelerating renewable energy substitution, and directing innovation toward low-carbon technologies.