Population decline and public attitudes toward multicultural immigration policies in South Korea

Abstract Population decline due to low fertility and aging causes socioeconomic challenges such as a shrinking labour force and regional decline. In response to these challenges, there is a growing discussion about accepting immigrants to mitigate the side effects of population decline. This implies the importance of analyzing local peoples' perceptions as a basis of policy and planning in anticipation of demographic transitions toward a multicultural society. While there are many studies on local problems caused by depopulation and perceptions of immigrants based on contact theory and group threat theory, there has been relatively little research on the relationship between depopulation and individual perceptions of immigrants. This study fills this gap by using survey data of Seoul, Korea, the city experiencing both population decline and an increase in immigrants. It employs the multilevel ordered logit model to explore how the decrease in local population associates with individuals' perception on the need for multicultural immigration policies. The results suggest that individuals are more likely to have a positive view of multicultural immigration policies if their region is experiencing a higher population decline. This finding is significant as it demonstrates that a shift to an unfavourable demographic structure can have a positive impact on perceptions of immigrant acceptance, offering a new perspective on the relationship between immigrants and native residents.