Prediction on the Accumulated Balance of Chinese Provincial Employee Medical Insurance Fund Based on GM (1,1) Model

The design of China's social medical insurance system is different from that of other countries. The existence of individual accounts of urban employee basic medical insurance has triggered a series of debates on the system rationality. Based on this, this study uses the grey prediction model to predict the accumulated balance of the employee medical insurance fund of each province from 2021 to 2030 by consulting the data of the statistical yearbook. The results show that the accuracy of using GM (1,1) model to predict the accumulated balance of employee medical insurance fund in each province is high, and the accumulated balance of employee medical insurance fund in each province will still increase significantly from 2021 to 2030. This result can be used as a reference for future changes in the accumulated balance of China's employee basic medical insurance fund, and provide data support for further policy improvement and reform.