Đánh giá tác động của biến đổi khí hậu tới năng suất lúa hữu cơ tại tỉnh Tuyên Quang

Organic rice production began in Tuyen Quang province in 2019 with several pilot projects, since then, significant advancements have been made, enhancing food security and reducing poverty for the locals.However, organic rice production is currently facing numerous obstacles, including both external and internal factors, of which climate change stands out as a critical concern that can negatively impact future organic rice yields in the entire region of Tuyen Quang province.Projections based on climate change scenarios indicate that, under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, rice yields in all districts/ cities of Tuyen Quang are expected to rise in both seasons compared to the baseline period.Specifically, under the RCP 4.5 scenarios, rice yields are predicted to increase by 23.3% in the Winter-Spring season and 29.77% in the major cropping season by the end of the century.The RCP 8.5 scenarios forecasts even greater increases of 38.24% in the Winter-Spring season and 30.01% in the major cropping season by the end of the century.