Coastal Flood Induced Salinity Intrusion Risk Assessment Using a Spatial Multi-criteria Approach in the South-Western Bangladesh

Abstract Bangladesh is extremely vulnerable to sea-level rise and other climate-induced extreme events, such as flooding, storm surge, and salinity intrusion. The south-western coastal region of Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to salinity intrusion caused by cyclone induced storm surges and coastal floods. Salinity intrusion endanger land productivity by increasing both soil and surface water salinity. Detailed risk assessment using spatial mapping approach can contribute to mitigating the effects of salinity intrusion on natural capital and the environment. In this study, we established and evaluated a spatial multi-criteria approach for mapping the risk levels of areas to salinity intrusion impacts using field data and geospatial techniques at the local scale. We evaluated the viability of the proposed approach using Khulna District, a major coastal city and saline prone area in the south-western Bangladesh. We considered three risk components (i.e. vulnerability, exposure and hazard) with 16 relevant criteria for the study. For each criterion, an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to build and weight spatial raster map layers. Individual maps for each risk component were generated using a weighted sum technique, and lastly, a risk map was created by combining those. Our generated maps correctly identified relevant spatial dimensions as well as risk levels (i.e. very-high to very-low). The outcomes of our study suggest that the southern (east and west) parts of the study area are mostly susceptible to salinity intrusion due to higher storm surge impacts, lower elevation, and land use patterns than other parts. We validate our findings using a qualitative and quantitative approach. We believe that this novel approach would be useful to create risk maps that policymakers and relevant stakeholders could potentially use to evaluate risks posed by flood induced salinity intrusion in coastal regions of Bangladesh and elsewhere with similar geo-climatic context.