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This is a Quantitative Study study.

October 8, 2025Open Access

Why is it easier to predict the epidemic curve than to reconstruct the underlying contact network?

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Mathematical analysis reveals robust predictions of epidemic curves in large networks, while reconstruction remains problematic.

Accurate predictions of epidemic curves occur despite challenges in reconstructing the underlying contact network.
The SIS epidemic model on weighted graphs demonstrates robustness in epidemic predictions influenced by network structure.
Quantitative analysis using Szemerédi's weak regularity lemma provides insight into the limitations of network reconstruction.
Ill-conditioning in the reconstruction process indicates that network structures are often far from the ground truth.

Keliger et al. (2025) studied this question.

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