We study the effect of the first wave of COVID-19 and the accompanying containment measures on fertility in Spain. We use earlier years to predict births in the absence of the pandemic and then compare our prediction to actual births. We document a large fall in births in December 2020 and January 2021 and a complete catch-up during the rest of 2021. The fall in fertility was moderate among native women, with a substantial rebound and a positive net effect of 5% by the end of 2021, while the decline in births among foreign women started early and was persistent.
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González et al. (2024) studied this question.
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