Characteristics of lung cancer screening eligible population in the US and prediction of the eligibility with simplified criteria

Background: In 2021, updates to the lung cancer screening (LCS) guidelines extended the eligibility to include younger individuals and those with lower lifetime smoking intensity. A significant challenge in the LCS implementation is identifying eligible individuals because lifetime smoking intensity, a key criterion of current guidelines, is typically unavailable in electronic health records and difficult to assess accurately. This study aimed to (I) examine the characteristics of the eligible population in the US based on current guidelines and (II) evaluate the performance of five simplified criteria as alternative tools for predicting LCS eligibility. Methods: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2013–2018 data were used. Five simplified criteria were: (I) ever smoker, defined as an individual with any positive smoking history; (II) current or former smoker, an individual with any positive smoking history or who quit smoking within 15 years; (III) current smoker, an individual currently smoking; (IV) current smoker, an individual currently smoking >0.5 packs per day (ppd); (V) current smoker, a person currently smoking >1 ppd. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy were calculated. The complex survey design was considered. Results: About 16.70 million individuals (representing 16.01% of population aged 50–80 years) were eligible for LCS in the US. The percentage of LCS eligibility was higher among people who were younger, male, non-Hispanic White, less educated, single, not insured, with poorer health status and lower socioeconomic status. Except for the criterion of current smoker with >1 ppd having low sensitivity (0.08), other criteria had sensitivity ranging between 0.45 and 1.00. The accuracy of the five criteria used ranged between 0.70 and 0.91. Conclusions: Individuals with less favorable social and clinical characteristics have higher chances of being eligible for LCS, potentially amplifying disparities in LCS utilization. Simplified criteria can be used as prescreening tools to identify target populations, which could facilitate LCS implementation at the population level.