Forecasting the risks of underground roadway stability loss based on mine research data

Abstract The article presents results of the research on forecasting the risks of underground roadway stability loss based on the results of mine monitoring. The method is used for safety control in the process of conducting mining operations and re-exploitation of roadways as industrial facilities. The risk assessment was carried out with allowance for spread of physical and mechanical parameters of rocks; this approach is confirmed by procession of data of more than 1000 experiments. Mining-and-technical factors and their negative impact on the rock destruction were identified and systematized. The structure of risk control in a geotechnical system “rock massif - roadway” was substantiated. The method for forecasting the risks of underground roadway destruction based on the results of the mine research was further developed. The method differs from the well-known ones by taking into account the dominant influencing factors, variations of values and standard deviations of the forecasted risks of roadway functionality loss and criteria for violation of its technological air gaps at a certain point in time. This makes it possible to assess the degree of danger of mine roadway stability loss and to undertake response measures more reasonably.