The role of experience and reputation in the performance of Australian films

This study examines the relationship between the experience and reputation of film producers and directors and the performance of films produced in Australia. Drawing on a dataset of 484 Australian films released in Australian cinemas between January 1997 and February 2018, we use regression discontinuity to test the causal relationships between changes to Australia's film industry policy and the effect of experience and reputation on film outcomes. The results show a positive relationship between budgets and the experience of the filmmaker, no relationship with improved cultural outcomes such as festival success, but surprising evidence that a screen policy that preferences funding of experienced producers may worsen box office outcomes. There is also evidence to suggest that studios are more effective in identifying highly profitable novice filmmakers. We conclude that government support of a film industry based on a filmmaker's experience and reputation, while increasing levels of investment, creates barriers to entry and may stifle innovation and commercial viability.