Passing path predicts shooting outcome in football

Abstract What determines the outcome of a shot (scored or unscored) in football (soccer)? Numerous studies have investigated various aspects of this question, including the skills and physical/mental state of the shooter or goalkeeper, the positional information of shots, as well as the attacking styles and defensive formations of the opposing team. However, a critical question has received limited attention: How does the passing path affect the outcome of a shot? In other words, does the path of the ball before shooting significantly influence the result when the same player takes two shots from the same location? This study aims to fill the gap in the literature by conducting qualitative studies using a dataset comprising 34,938 shots, along with corresponding passing paths from top-tier football leagues and international competitions such as the World Cup. Eighteen path features were extracted and applied to three different machine-learning models. The results indicate that the passing path, whether with or without the positional information of shots, can indeed predict shooting outcomes and reveal influential path features. Moreover, it suggests that taking quick actions to move the ball across areas with a high probability of scoring a goal can significantly increases the chance of a successful shot. Interestingly, certain path features that are commonly considered important for team performance, such as the distribution of passes among players and the overall path length, were found to be less significant for shooting outcomes. These findings enhance our understanding of the effective ball-passing and provide valuable insights into the critical factors for achieving successful shots in football games.