Satellite Image Fusion Airborne LiDAR Point-Clouds-Driven Machine Learning Modeling to Predict the Carbon Stock of Typical Subtropical Plantation in China

In the current context of carbon neutrality, afforestation is an effective means of absorbing carbon dioxide. Stock can be used not only as an economic value index of forest wood resources but also as an important index of biomass and carbon storage estimation in forest emission reduction project evaluation. In this paper, we propose a data-driven machine learning framework and method for predicting plantation stock based on airborne LiDAR + satellite remote sensing, and carried out experimental verification at the site of the National Forest emission reduction project in Southern China. We used step-up regression and random forest (RF) to screen LiDAR and Landsat 8 OLI multispectral indicators suitable for the prediction of plantation stock, and constructed a plantation stock model based on machine learning (support vector machine regression, RF regression). Our method is compared with traditional statistical methods (stepwise regression and partial least squares regression). Through the verification of 57 plantation field survey data, the accuracy of the stand estimation model constructed using the RF method is generally better (ΔR2 = 0.01~0.27, ΔRMSE = 1.88~13.77 m3·hm−2, ΔMAE = 1.17~13.57 m3·hm−2). The model evaluation accuracy based on machine learning is higher than that of the traditional statistical method, and the fitting R2 is greater than 0.91, while the fitting R2 of the traditional statistical method is 0.85. The best fitting models were all support vector regression models. The combination of UAV point clouds and satellite multi-spectral images has the best modeling effect, followed by LiDAR point clouds and Landsat 8. At present, this method is only applicable to artificial forests; further verification is needed for natural forests. In the future, the density and quality of higher clouds could be increased. The validity and accuracy of the method were further verified. This paper provides a method for predicting the accumulation of typical Chinese plantations at the forest farm scale based on the “airborne LiDAR + satellite remote sensing” data-driven machine learning modeling, which has potential application value for the current carbon neutrality goal of the southern plantation forest emission reduction project.