Statistical analysis demonstrates correlations between subsequent positive magnitude differences in earthquake catalogs, suggesting improved accuracy for seismic forecasting models.
The identification of patterns in space, time, and magnitude, which could potentially encode the subsequent earthquake magnitude, represents a significant challenge in earthquake forecasting. A pivotal aspect of this endeavor involves the search for correlations between earthquake magnitudes, a task greatly hindered by the incompleteness of instrumental catalogs. A novel strategy to address this challenge is provided by the groundbreaking observation by Van der Elst (Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2021), that positive magnitude differences, under certain conditions, remain unaffected by incompleteness. In this letter we adopt this strategy which provides a clear and unambiguous proof regarding the existence of correlations between subsequent positive magnitude differences. Our results are consistent with a time-dependent b-value in the Gutenberg-Richter law, significantly enhancing existing models for seismic forecasting.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Lippiello et al. (2024) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: