New growth in cross-border E-business: evidence from gray forecasting to cross-border E-business in China

Purpose This paper delves into cross-border E-business, unraveling its intricate dynamics and forecasting its future trajectory. Design/methodology/approach This paper projects the prospective market size of cross-border E-business in China for the year 2023 using the GM (1,1) gray forecasting model. Furthermore, to enhance the analysis, the paper attempts to simulate and forecast the size of China’s cross-border E-business sector using the GM (1,3) gray model. This extended model considers not only the historical trends of cross-border E-business but also the growth patterns of GDP and the digital economy. Findings The forecast indicates a market size of 18,760 to 18,934 billion RMB in 2023, aligning with the consistent growth observed in previous years. This suggests a sustained positive trajectory for cross-border E-business. Originality/value Cross-border e-commerce critically shapes China’s global integration and traditional industry development. The research in this paper provides insights beyond statistical trends, contributing to a nuanced understanding of the pivotal role played by cross-border e-commerce in shaping China’s economic future.