A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Moisture Content of Recycled Concrete Aggregate on the Compressive Strength of Concrete

To reduce the environmental impact of concrete, recycled aggregates are of significant interest. Recycled concrete aggregate (RCA) presents a significant resource opportunity, although its performance as an aggregate in concrete is variable. This study presents a meta-analysis of the published literature to refine the understanding of how the moisture content of RCA, as well as other parameters, affects the compressive strength of concrete. Seven machine learning models were used to predict the compressive strength of concrete with RCA, including linear regression, support vector regression (SVR), and k-nearest neighbors (KNN) as single models, and decision tree, random forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM as ensemble models. The results of this study demonstrate that ensemble models, particularly the LightGBM model, exhibited superior prediction accuracy compared to single models. The LightGBM model yielded the highest prediction accuracy with R2 = 0.94, RMSE = 4.16 MPa, MAE = 3.03 MPa, and Delta RMSE = 1.4 MPa, making it the selected final model. The study, employing feature importance with LightGBM as the final model, identified age, water/cement ratio, and fine RCA aggregate content as key factors influencing compressive strength in concrete with RCA. In an interaction plot analysis using the final model, lowering the water–cement ratio consistently improved compressive strength, especially between 0.3 and 0.4, while increasing the fine RCA ratio decreased compressive strength, particularly in the range of 0.4 to 0.6. Additionally, it was found that maintaining moisture conditions of RCA typically between 0.0 and 0.8 was crucial for maximizing strength, whereas extreme moisture conditions, like fully saturated surface dry (SSD) state, negatively impacted strength.