Prognostic implication of 1-year decline in diffusing capacity in newly diagnosed idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Abstract The progression of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is assessed through serial monitoring of forced vital capacity (FVC). Currently, data regarding the clinical significance of longitudinal changes in diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) is lacking. We investigated the prognostic implications of a 1-year decline in DLCO in 319 patients newly diagnosed with IPF at a tertiary hospital between January 2010 and December 2020. Changes in FVC and DLCO over the first year after the initial diagnosis were reviewed; a decline in FVC ≥ 5% and DLCO ≥ 10% predicted were considered significant changes. During the first year after diagnosis, a significant decline in FVC and DLCO was observed in 101 (31.7%) and 64 (20.1%) patients, respectively. Multivariable analysis showed that a 1-year decline in FVC ≥ 5% predicted (aHR 2.74, 95% CI 1.88–4.00) and 1-year decline in DLCO ≥ 10% predicted (aHR 2.31, 95% CI 1.47–3.62) were independently associated with a higher risk of subsequent mortality. The prognostic impact of a decline in DLCO remained significant regardless of changes in FVC, presence of emphysema, or radiographic indications of pulmonary hypertension. Therefore, serial monitoring of DLCO should be recommended because it may offer additional prognostic information compared with monitoring of FVC alone.