Assessing the E-bike trends and impact on sustainable mobility: A national-level study in the Netherlands

Over the past decade, e-bikes have become increasingly popular, sparking interest in their potential replacement for car use and benefit for the environment. However, many studies on e-bike development and their substitution effects exhibit limitations. These include a lack of modeling on e-bike trend development, inadequate assessments of their impact on national-level mobility, a predominant focus on commuting, and a lack of foresight into future e-bike substitution effects. Our research introduces an innovative approach to model e-bike development, employing a multilevel Richards growth curve model fitted within a hierarchical Bayesian framework using the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method. Further, we incorporate an intention-based method to delve into the potential of e-bikes in stimulating sustainable mobility in the Netherlands. Our findings highlight an ongoing increase in e-bike distance share, with marked gender and generational differences in growth patterns. Notably, women have higher e-bike usage than men, and this gap is narrowing for older age groups while widening among younger demographics, suggesting that younger people may adopt e-bike usage differently than older generation. E-bike ownership strongly reduces the conventional bicycle use and, to a lesser extent, car and public transport use, especially for commuting. This study provides insight into whether and to what extent e-bikes substitute for car use and other modes of transportation, and how the expected growth in e-bike use in coming years may impact national mobility in the Netherlands.