Methodology for Selecting Optimal Routes for the Transportation of Dangerous Goods in Conditions of Risk Uncertainty

Abstract * A risk situation is a type of uncertainty situation where events are likely to occur. In other words, risk is an estimated probability, and uncertainty is something that cannot be quantified. The greater the uncertainty when making a decision, the greater the degree of risk. The investigation is devoted to the development of a unified methodology for selecting optimal (from the proposed alternatives) routes for transporting dangerous goods (any of the 9 standard classes) by road. A model for determining two groups of risk components for transporting dangerous goods on separate routes is proposed, namely: parameters of risks of probability of occurrence of emergency situations and parameters that affect the risks of complexity of eliminating their possible consequences. This opened up opportunities for correct selection of criteria when forming a multi-criteria optimization problem of transportation. Mathematical algorithms for a comprehensive solution of the multi-criteria optimization problem of routing dangerous goods transportation are developed using the classical criteria of Laplace, Wald, Savage, and Hurwitz. To confirm the legal capacity of the proposed approach and mathematical apparatus, the optimal route for transportation of cylinders with technical gases through the transport network of Lutsk was calculated. Possible alternative transportation routes have been identified and safety criteria have been formalized for two groups of risk components