The development and internal validation of a multivariable model predicting 6-month mortality for people with opioid use disorder presenting to community drug services in England: a protocol

People with opioid use disorder have substantially higher standardised mortality rates compared to the general population; however, lack of clear individual prognostic information presents challenges to prioritise or target interventions within drug treatment services. Previous prognostic models have been developed to estimate the risk of developing opioid use disorder and opioid-related overdose in people routinely prescribed opioids but, to our knowledge, none have been developed to estimate mortality risk in people accessing drug services with opioid use disorder. Initial presentation to drug services is a pragmatic time to evaluate mortality risk given the contemporaneous routine collection of prognostic indicators and as a decision point for appropriate service prioritisation and targeted intervention delivery. This study aims to develop and internally validate a model to estimate 6-month mortality risk for people with opioid use disorder from prognostic indicators recorded at initial assessment in drug services in England.