In this work analysis is carried out of the potential of integrating the centralized grid with decentralized renewable energy systems. A techno-economic analysis is done using HOMER Pro for a peri-urban area in Mukono, Uganda. An evaluation of the technical performance for off-grid, grid-connected and grid extension scenarios is performed, assuming the same equipment capacities as the solar PV, battery and generator hybrid system deployed at the mini-grid site. The renewable fraction is 55% for the off-grid and 65% for the on-grid electrification cases. The lowest levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is for the on-grid scenario when no grid installation costs are considered, followed by the grid extension case and with the highest LCOE of US $ 0.274 / kWh being for the off-grid case due to significant generator costs. A sensitivity analysis done for a shorter project lifetime and higher allowed capacity shortfall results elevates the grid extension LCOE to the highest value of US $ 0.300 / kWh.
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Seremba et al. (2024) studied this question.
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