Is the surge in cesarean section rates during the COVID-19 pandemic truly substantiated?

Background Cesarean section (C-section) rates, deemed a critical health indicator, have experienced a historical increase. The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted healthcare patterns including delays or lack of follow-up in treatment and an increased number of patients with acute problems in hospitals. This study aimed to explore whether the observed surge is a genuine consequence of pandemic-related factors. Methods This study employs an Interrupted Time Series (ITS) design to analyze monthly C-section rates from March 2018 to January 2023 in Kurdistan province, Iran. Segmented regression modeling is utilized for robust data analysis. Results The C-section rate did not show a significant change immediately after the onset of COVID-19. However, the monthly trend increased significantly during the post-pandemic period ( p < 0.05). Among primigravid women, a significant monthly increase was observed before February 2020 ( p < 0.05). No significant change was observed in the level or trend of C-section rates among primigravid women after the onset of COVID-19. Conclusion This study underscores the significant and enduring impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in further increasing the C-section rates over the long term, the observed variations in C-section rates among primigravid women indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic had no statistically significant impact.