A Prediction Method of the Load Capacity of Transmission Lines Considering Meteorological Uncertainties

In view of the problem that the existing probability prediction methods for carrying capacity of overhead transmission lines ignore the influence of meteorological parameter prediction values and meteorological environment on the probability distribution of meteorological parameter prediction errors (that is, ignore the conditional distribution characteristics of meteorological parameter prediction errors), firstly, The problem of meteorological parameter prediction error analysis is constructed as the problem of solving the conditional distribution of meteorological parameter prediction error under the two influence factors of meteorological parameter prediction value and meteorological environment; Then, Copula function and nonparametric kernel density estimation method are introduced to construct a method to solve the conditional distribution of meteorological parameter prediction error; Then, combined with Monte Carlo sampling method, a new method of carrying capacity probability prediction of overhead transmission lines considering the conditional distribution of meteorological parameter prediction error is proposed. Finally, the accuracy of the method is verified by simulation.