This research delves into the dynamic United States electric vehicle (EV) market, marked by a 55% growth in 2022, achieving an 8% sales share. Utilizing Argonne National Laboratory's data, the study focuses on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and employs ARIMA modeling to analyze 13 years of sales trends. Monthly patterns reveal peaks in the first and fourth quarters, attributed to holiday discounts, new model releases, and tax incentives. The forecast suggests an upward trajectory, estimating 125,000 EV units sold in 2024, with an increase to 150,000 post-2025, hinting at possible market saturation. Acknowledging potential underestimation due to evolving factors like environmental awareness, the research underscores the importance of a holistic approach. Considering consumer perspectives and effective governmental policies is crucial for sustained EV growth and maximizing environmental benefits in this promising frontier.
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Chengyuan Chen (2024) studied this question.
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