Statistical Analysis of the Modern Trends in Natural Movement of Population of the Autonomous Republic of Adjara

Iamze Surmanidze E-mail: Surmanidze.iamze@bsu.edu.ge Doctor in Business Administration Batumi Shota Rustaveli State University Batumi, Georgia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4389-9250 Natalia Robitashvili E-mail: nato.robitashvili@bsu.edu.ge Doctor in Business Administration Batumi Shota Rustaveli State University Batumi, Georgia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7645-649 Nino Kontselidze E-mail: n.kontselidze@bsu.edu.ge Ph.D. Student Batumi Shota Rustaveli State University Batumi, Georgia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5683-4886 Abstract: The demographic policy of the country, among other things, includes important issues such as population reproduction, marriage-divorce, birth rate, death rate, and so on. Their discussion is also necessary in the regional context in order to assess the demographic resources of the region and to develop an adequate political approach based on it, which in turn considers the policy of demographic security. Regional demographics are always on the list of interest for both sociologists and economists. It is important to identify and study the peculiarities of demographic development in certain regions of the country, the problem of population decline and aging, its reproductive potential, on which both national demographic security and socio-economic development of the country (region) depend. The article examines the dynamics of the absolute indicators of natural movement for the Autonomous Republic of Adjara and its peculiarities in the regional context. In particular, the study of the dynamics of marriages and divorces legally registered in Adjara showed that in the recent years there has been a decrease in the number of marriages and an increase in the number of divorces due to socio-cultural and economic factors, as well as delays in marriage age. This trend will have a negative impact on the birth rate, because high rate of divorce played a certain role in the decline in the number of births and in the long run it will aggravate the demographic situation in Adjara. Despite the fact that natural increase was declining since 2014, it still had a positive mark, the birth rate exceeds the death rate. Declining trend of natural increase is due to many factors (biological, socio-economic, etc.). The largest decline in natural increase in 2019 compared to the previous year was observed in highland municipalities, which is caused by factors such as changes in age-sex structure, eco-migration, lack of jobs. A greater part in the declining number of births is caused by changes in reproductive behavior and less was due to age structure. Adjara is characterized by high natural increase compared to other regions of Georgia. In order to better assess the natural movement, the crude birth rate, death rate and natural increase were calculated. Calculations have shown that the general ratios of natural movement have changed slightly in recent years and are almost stable. The crude rate of natural increase is highest in Adjara and it is higher than the critical risk limit (0.0-1.0 per mille). Birth and mortality rates were also found beyond the critical risk limit (13 per mille). Unlike other regions of Georgia, depopulation is not observed in Adjara. The dynamics of the economy of the natural movement of the population of Adjara shows that the replacement of the mother generation requires the birth of more than one girl by one woman, or reproduction at the expense of more human turnover and not at the expense of efficiency ("lower costs"). One of the factors in population reproduction, such as the sex ratio at birth, is gradually decreasing and largely approaching normal value (105-107). Another study of natural movement - the dynamics of mortality - has shown that the death toll of women of childbearing age is quite small and declining, giving a promising forecast for the future in terms of increasing birth rate. The study of demographic aging of the population in the region showed that Adjara has moved from the initial level of aging to the average level (according to criteria of J. Beaujeu Garnier & R. Rosset’s Demographic Aging scale), which is mainly caused by the outflow of the working age population from the country (external migration). However, unlike other regions of Georgia, Adjara has the lowest rate of demographic aging. Although the demographic situation in Adjara is better than the general situation in the country, we can not call it positive and hopeful in the long run, because there is an increase in the number of divorces, a decrease in natural increase, demographic aging, a decrease in the economy. Based on the conclusions, it can be said that the modern trends in natural movement of the population of Adjara are generally unfavorable, which will have a negative impact on the demographic and socio-economic development of the region in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to pursue a timely and adequate demographic policy in order to avoid a severe demographic crisis in the future. Keywords: Reproduction, marriage, divorce, childbirth, natural increase, aging level. JEL classification: J11, J12, J13, J14