Long-term Mammography Screening Trends and Predictors of Return to Screening after the COVID-19 Pandemic: Results from a Statewide Registry

Purpose To evaluate long-term trends in mammography screening rates and identify sociodemographic and breast cancer risk characteristics associated with return to screening after the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and Methods In this retrospective study, statewide screening mammography data of 222 384 female individuals aged 40 years or older (mean age, 58.8 years ± 11.7 [SD]) from the Vermont Breast Cancer Surveillance System were evaluated to generate descriptive statistics and Joinpoint models to characterize screening patterns during 2000–2022. Log-binomial regression models estimated associations of sociodemographic and risk characteristics with post–COVID-19 pandemic return to screening. Results The proportion of female individuals in Vermont aged 50–74 years with a screening mammogram obtained in the previous 2 years declined from a prepandemic level of 61.3% (95% CI: 61.1%, 61.6%) in 2019 to 56.0% (95% CI: 55.7%, 56.3%) in 2021 before rebounding to 60.7% (95% CI: 60.4%, 61.0%) in 2022. Screening adherence in 2022 remained substantially lower than that observed during the 2007–2010 apex of screening adherence (66.1%–67.0%). Joinpoint models estimated an annual percent change of −1.1% (95% CI: −1.5%, −0.8%) during 2010–2022. Among the cohort of 95 644 individuals screened during January 2018–March 2020, the probability of returning to screening during 2020–2022 varied by age (eg, risk ratio [RR] = 0.94 [95% CI: 0.93, 0.95] for age 40–44 vs age 60–64 years), race and ethnicity (RR = 0.84 [95% CI: 0.78, 0.90] for Black vs White individuals), education (RR = 0.84 [95% CI: 0.81, 0.86] for less than high school degree vs college degree), and by 5-year breast cancer risk (RR = 1.06 [95% CI: 1.04, 1.08] for very high vs average risk). Conclusion Despite a rebound to near prepandemic levels, Vermont mammography screening rates have steadily declined since 2010, with certain sociodemographic groups less likely to return to screening after the pandemic. Keywords: Mammography, Breast, Health Policy and Practice, Neoplasms-Primary, Epidemiology, Screening Supplemental material is available for this article.