Top Research Performance Over Time: A Multidimensional Micro-Data Approach

In this research, the contribution of a highly productive minority of scientists to the national Polish research output over the past three decades (1992-2021) is explored. Four classes of top performers (the upper 1%, 3%, 5%, and 10%) are examined using four productivity measurements. A temporal stability of productivity patterns is found: the upper 1% of scientists, on average, account for 10% of the national output, and the upper 10% account for almost 50% of total output, with significant disciplinary variations. The 1/10 and the 10/50 rules consistently apply across the three decades studied. The Relative Presence Index (RPI) we constructed shows that men are over-represented in all top performers classes. Top performers are studied longitudinally through their detailed publishing histories, with micro-data coming from the raw Scopus dataset. Econometric models identify the three most important predictors changing the odds ratio estimates of membership in top performance classes: gender, academic age, and publishing patterns. The downward trend in fixed effects over successive six-year periods indicates increasing competition in academia. A large population of internationally visible Polish scientists (N=152,043) with their 587,558 articles is studied. Implications for high productivity studies are shown, and limitations are discussed.