Worse Things Than Losing: Underdogs Defining Likelihood of Success

This essay is a preliminary argument intended to provoke just war scholars to think more carefully and deeply about the criterion of likelihood of success. This is particularly appropriate at this moment in time as Taiwan is on high alert as it faces China, and as we watch the determination of Ukraine to defend itself from Russian aggression. Since the writing of this essay, the 9 million people of the state of Israel faced the horrific assault by Hamas terrorists on October 7, 2023. If likelihood of success is prioritized over the primary jus ad bellum criteria, then many possible limited successes evaporate from creative strategy. Perhaps a better way of thinking about this is that we must be thoughtful in defining what we mean by "success." Success need not be only immediate tactical or strategic victory, as tactical losses may result in strategic wins.