Natural Foci and Long-Term Analysis of the Leptospirosis Incidence in the Russian Federation, Forecast for 2025

The aim is the forecast of the leptospirosis epidemic manifestations for 2025 in the Russian Federation based on an analysis of the long-term incidence and the epizootiological monitoring data from 2024. Leptospirosis foci are a worldwide public health problem. In the Russian Federation, the average annual incidence of leptospirosis for 2000–2024 (excluding 2020–2021) is 0.39±0.084 per 100 thousand population, mainly sporadic cases are registered, mortality remains high and varies from 2.1 to 8.4 %. In 2024, human leptospirosis was established in all federal districts with maximum incidence levels in the North-Western and Southern federal Districts. Infection with pathogenic Leptospira in small mammals and water was detected in 60 subjects of the Russian Federation in all federal districts. The main volume of the population specific prevention falls on the Southern Federal District and accounts 85.5 % from 15,156 vaccinated. Human disease risks persist in areas with active leptospirosis natural foci, especially in the Central, Far Eastern and North-Western Federal Districts. Imported cases of infection are possible both from highly endemic countries and between the territories of the Russian Federation.