Facilitating the transition to 100% carbon-free electricity with multi-objective, multi-scenario decision support

Transitioning a large city such as Los Angeles to 100% carbon-free electricity requires collaboration among multiple actors with different and sometimes conflicting objectives. In this Cell Reports Sustainability article, Arent and colleagues describe a pioneering multi-scenario, multi-objective decision support effort, identifying specific pathways for Los Angeles to achieve its carbon-free goals that satisfy both day-to-day and transformational requirements. Here, we describe these pathways and the innovative, collaborative process that produced them. Transitioning a large city such as Los Angeles to 100% carbon-free electricity requires collaboration among multiple actors with different and sometimes conflicting objectives. In this Cell Reports Sustainability article, Arent and colleagues describe a pioneering multi-scenario, multi-objective decision support effort, identifying specific pathways for Los Angeles to achieve its carbon-free goals that satisfy both day-to-day and transformational requirements. Here, we describe these pathways and the innovative, collaborative process that produced them. In 2018, the city of Los Angeles set the goal of achieving 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045. Realizing this ambition would help mitigate climate change impacts, improve local air quality, and better human health, particularly for the city's historically disadvantaged populations. But this goal also represents a step into the unknown since no city of comparable size currently has 100% carbon-free electricity derived primarily from solar and wind, as would be necessary for any carbon free grid for Los Angeles. The study conducted by Arent et al. published in this issue of Cell Reports Sustainability1Cochran J., Denholm P., Mooney M., Steinberg D., Hale E., Heath G., Palmintier B., Keyser D., Oleson D., Arent D., et al. 2024. 'Integrated multimodal analysis reveals achievable pathways toward reliable, 100% renewable electricity for Los Angeles', Cell Reports Sustainability, 1, 100078.Google Scholar provides a key ingredient for transitioning Los Angeles' electric system. Specifically, it offers concrete descriptions of potential end states and pathways to achieve 100% reliable carbon free-electricity that satisfy both day-to-day and transformational requirements. By addressing the fundamental question—can LA achieve zero-carbon electricity—the study affirms the feasibility of this objective by identifying low-cost pathways for each scenario that meets multiple objectives. These pathways share common features, relying on lower cost, out-of-basin solar and wind generation for the majority of electricity production. They also incorporate diurnal storage, demand response, and in-basin generation from clean fuels to ensure reliability, necessitated by limitations in the transmission network. Importantly, all the pathways deliver substantial greenhouse gas reductions and a 6% to 8% reduction in local air pollution (fine particulate matter), resulting in annual health savings of $1.5 billion. Furthermore, the study indicates that while the ultimate configuration of a zero-carbon grid remains uncertain, the initial steps toward this goal are clear, with over 80% of new investments being common across all pathways, thereby enabling confident deployment by LA Department of Water and Power (LADWP) —the city's municipally owned utility—while considering the configuration of the final 20%. Arent et al. and the pathways they illuminate emerged from LA100, an exciting and innovative example of multi-objective, multi-scenario decision support in the service of collaborative, goal-based governance. Such goal-based governance—the setting of ambitious goals followed by strategic planning to achieve them—has become an important means to address climate change,2Young O.R. Beyond Regulation: Innovative Strategies for Governing Large Complex Systems.Sustainability. 2017; 9: 938Crossref Scopus (21) Google Scholar,3Sabel C.F. Victor D.G. Fixing the Climate: Strategies for an Uncertain World. Princeton University Press, 2022Google Scholar particularly when many actors must collaborate to pursue fundamental changes to infrastructure, policies, and behaviors. Ambitious goals can catalyze and align cooperation among multiple actors, but they also necessitate effective decision support because goal-based strategies can fail to move quickly, devolve into uncoordinated actions, get stuck following initially helpful but long-term adverse pathways, or meet some goals but not others.4Ara Begum R. Lempert R. Ali E. Benjaminsen T.A. Bernauer T. Cramer W. Cui X. Mach K.J. Nagy G. Stenseth N.C. et al.Point of Departure and Key Concepts.in: Pörtner H.-O. Roberts D.C. Poloczanska E.S. Mintenbeck K. Tignor M. Alegría A. Craig M. Langsdorf S. Löschke S. Möller V. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA2022Google Scholar Decision support—organized efforts to produce, disseminate, and facilitate the use of data and information in order to improve the quality and efficacy of decisions5National Research Council (NRC)Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate (Panel on Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decision Support, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Climate Change.Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences, Washington, DC: and Education. 2009; : 36Google Scholar—has become increasingly important to governments at all levels pursuing decarbonization strategies. For instance, the US Congress reportedly negotiated the details of what became the Inflation Reduction Act in close collaboration with integrated assessment modelers, such as Princeton's REPEAT project, who provided rapid feedback on how various changes to the legislation might affect US greenhouse gas emissions and other legislative goals. The process works best when the analytics and analysis are co-produced by decision makers and expert information providers. Building and using decision support systems that emphasize multi-objectives and multiple scenarios can facilitate dialogue, foster common understandings, and catalyze collaboration among stakeholders.6Jones R.N. Patwardhan A. Cohen S. Dessai S. Lammel A. Lempert R. Monirul Qader Mirza M. von Storch H. 'Foundations for Decision Making.' in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. 2014Google Scholar,7Wong-Parodi G. Mach K.J. Jagannathan K. Sjostrom K.D. Insights for developing effective decision support tools for environmental sustainability.Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 2020; 42: 52-59Crossref Scopus (35) Google Scholar LA100 represents a pioneering collaboration at the local level among the city of Los Angeles, LADWP, the Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and several academic institutions to identify and evaluate potential pathways to achieving the city's goal.8Cochran J. Denholm P. Mooney M. Steinberg D. Hale E. Heath G. Palmintier B. Sigrin B. Keyser D. McCamey D. et al."Executive Summary.".in: Cochran J. Denholm P. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO2021Google Scholar An LA100 Advisory Group, organized by LADWP and the Office of the Mayor of Los Angeles, partnered with NREL to conduct LA100. The advisory group met 15 times between June 2017 and March 2021 and included representatives from environmental groups, neighborhood councils, academia, customers, city government, business, and the workforce.8Cochran J. Denholm P. Mooney M. Steinberg D. Hale E. Heath G. Palmintier B. Sigrin B. Keyser D. McCamey D. et al."Executive Summary.".in: Cochran J. Denholm P. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO2021Google Scholar This group helped to shape the scenarios, objectives, and assumptions considered in the analyses and advised on how the results should be presented. In so doing, NREL and the Advisory Group implemented "deliberation with analysis," an iterative learning process in which stakeholders deliberate on their objectives, options, and problem framings; researchers and participants generate and interpret decision-relevant information; and participants revisit their objectives, options, and problem framings.5National Research Council (NRC)Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate (Panel on Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decision Support, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Climate Change.Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences, Washington, DC: and Education. 2009; : 36Google Scholar This process is particularly useful in situations in which the problem formulation, understanding of system function, and set of promising solutions emerge through interactions among the involved parties. Transforming the city's electricity system presents a special challenge to all city leaders, who must meet a core and vital set of responsibilities and stakeholder needs while simultaneously making bold moves to redesign their energy system. These can be characterized as "foundational" and "transformational" goals, and while the approach to achieving each set may vary, they are fundamentally intertwined.9McDonald T. Beginning with System Transformation in Mind: Toward a Theory of Policy Leadership for Systemic Challenges.2024Google Scholar If leaders fail the first, they will not have a chance to do the latter. In terms of the foundational goals, LADWP must first and foremost keep the lights on, meaning ensuring system reliability and resource adequacy. The utility must provide continual service minute by minute and every month of the year, even when faced with surges in demand, equipment failures, natural disasters, or long weeks when the wind doesn't blow or clouds obscure the sun. The utility must also ensure sufficient supply, avoiding any electricity shortage that would slow LA's economy or the electrification of its transportation, housing, and industrial sectors as they pursue their own decarbonization goals. While meeting these foundational objectives, leaders must simultaneously chart the bold steps and conduct the necessary planning that will drive the technological, infrastructure, and policy changes that will enable transformation toward 100% carbon-free electricity. This involves managing diverse and often conflicting stakeholder demands on the city's electricity system. For example, some people focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, others demand improved local air quality (particularly for marginalized communities who suffer most from pollution), and some care about the impact on jobs. City leaders must manage all these objectives as cost effectively as possible. The multi-objective, multi-scenario decision support exemplified by LA100 can help communities navigate the transition to carbon-free energy by facilitating the collective action of many independent (yet interdependent) actors, each pursuing different and sometimes conflicting objectives in the presence of deep uncertainty about the opportunities and threats they face. Not surprisingly, however, LA100 is only a first step. Achieving 100% carbon-free electricity will require building transmission, electric generation, and other infrastructure (including electric vehicle charging) at unprecedented rates. Moreover, it will require active involvement of marginalized communities in the planning and implementation processes. The reliance on out-of-basin generation creates yet-unexamined risks, such as potential inadequacy of supply or competition with other cities seeking similar power sources. LA100 only begins to examine how key constituencies will or will not benefit from traveling the zero-carbon pathways. For instance, the $1.5 billion in annual health savings does not easily translate into the capital LADWP needed to invest in new infrastructure nor help cushion any rate increases for LADWP customers. However, LA100 has already taken a pioneering step in offering goal-based governance pathways by which the city of Los Angeles can build trust through maintaining day-to-day reliability while making the longer steps to transition to a new electric system that is both climate friendly and improves the health and well-being of all residents in the city. By embracing collaborative governance, leveraging decision support, and pursuing goal-based strategies, Los Angeles is at the forefront of transitioning to 100% carbon free-electricity. However, continued innovation, multiple stakeholder engagement, and adaptive management will be essential to overcoming challenges and realizing the vision of a sustainable and resilient electricity power system for all cities. The author declares no competing interests. Integrated multimodel analysis reveals achievable pathways toward reliable, 100% renewable electricity for Los AngelesCochran et al.Cell Reports SustainabilityApril 26, 2024In BriefAlthough communities and businesses nationwide have announced ambitious plans to combat climate change with electricity from carbon-free or renewable energy sources, there has been no comprehensive analysis of the pathways needed to power the largest US cities using only clean energy. Cochran et al. present findings from the Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study, using detailed models to explore the interplay of factors, including supply, demand, infrastructure, and operational practices, in reliably delivering electricity to more than 4 million residents.