UK Agency on the Issue of Taiwan

UK Agency on the Issue of Taiwan Alex Bristow (bio) and Catherine Jones (bio) The United Kingdom's role in the stability of the Taiwan flashpoint merits closer attention than it is typically afforded. The UK has global commitments to uphold the international rules-based order, including as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, which raises expectations that it would act to oppose China's use of force or coercion to change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. The UK is also focusing more attention and resources on the Indo-Pacific, as outlined in recent government reviews of its foreign and defense policies, which expand options for UK policymakers to contribute to regional stability. While the UK is sometimes regarded as a great power, it would not act unilaterally over Taiwan's status or security as China or the United States could. Therefore, the UK's level of agency is closer to the regional "middle" powers considered in this roundtable. This essay first assesses the trajectory of UK policy toward Taiwan and China. It then considers the diplomatic, economic, and military choices available to British policymakers now and in the event of a crisis or war across the Taiwan Strait. The UK's Approach to Taiwan The UK's policy toward Taiwan continues to be framed by its "one China" policy, adopted in 1972. This policy, resembling the approach of several other countries, acknowledges, without accepting, Beijing's claim that Taiwan is a province of the People's Republic of China (PRC). However, the UK has developed trade and cultural relations with Taiwan and supported Taipei's meaningful participation in international organizations while capping government interactions below the cabinet level and avoiding open [End Page 65] cooperation on defense.1 Alongside partners such as the G-7 and Australia, the UK has become more vocal about Taiwan as Beijing's pressure on Taipei has increased in recent years. The UK has reiterated its opposition to any forceful change to the status quo while deepening engagement with Taiwan. Two government policy white papers, the Integrated Review Refresh and the updated Defence Command Paper, both published in 2023, sharpened the UK's response to worsening global geopolitics, including the "threat" posed by Russia and the "epoch-defining challenge" posed by the growing assertiveness of "systemic competitor" China.2 Unlike the 2021 versions of the same policy papers, the Integrated Review Refresh and the new Defence Command Paper mention Taiwan and the risk that China will use force across the strait. The Integrated Review Refresh states that the UK will widen alignment with core allies and a broader group of partners, including through collective security, to cope with the Chinese Communist Party, and that the UK will work with all parties to ensure that heightened tensions across the Taiwan Strait, as well as in the East and South China Seas, do not escalate.3 The Defence Command Paper outlines how the UK's growing military presence in the Indo-Pacific will support a "campaigning approach" to systemic competition that reinforces deterrence and international order and upholds British interests and values.4 These undertakings could provide a rationale and capability for UK involvement in a Taiwan crisis or cross-strait conflict but do not commit the government to any specific course of action. Beyond this, many parliamentarians and parliamentary committees have called for firmer UK policies toward China, and some also favor greater support to Taiwan. Some of the strongest opinions on Taiwan have been put forward by the cross-party House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee (FAC), which published its 2023 report on the UK's Indo-Pacific tilt to coincide with then foreign secretary James Cleverly's [End Page 66] visit to Beijing. The FAC, directly quoting evidence submitted to it, stated that "Taiwan is already an independent country, under the name Republic of China (ROC)…it is only lacking greater international recognition."5 Drawing on wider insights garnered from a visit to Taiwan that included a tabletop exercise, the FAC made several recommendations for UK policy toward Taiwan, including campaigning for Taiwanese membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and working with like...