Can New Housing Supply Mitigate Displacement and Exclusion?

Problem, research strategy, and findings The housing affordability crisis is exacerbating displacement and exclusion in built-up urban neighborhoods. Although new housing development might help, it faces local opposition. Researchers have struggled to inform this debate because of data challenges, so we constructed a unique database on construction and household-level mobility to determine how development affects displacement and exclusion in the subsequent 5 years in Los Angeles (a typical coastal "hot market" in California) and San Francisco (the extreme "superstar city" case in California). We found that developing new market-rate housing generally helped slightly to alleviate both displacement and exclusion pressures for low-income households in Los Angeles and helped increase in-migration into weaker market neighborhoods in San Francisco. But particularly in the hottest markets, the new market-rate units could fail to spur low- and moderate-income households' in-migration and exacerbate their out-migration. Likewise, the positive impacts of the new market-rate units may fade over time. Subsidized housing generally mitigated both exclusion and displacement slightly in most markets. Future research should examine long-term effects in a variety of contexts, controlling for the role of housing policies such as rent stabilization.